Ember

Ember is an innovative public AI prediction engine designed to enhance trust in AI forecasts by ensuring transparency in its processes. Built on the fundamental belief that AI predictions without justification are untrustworthy, Ember operates daily at 7 AM EST. It leverages three distinct AI models—Claude from Anthropic, Grok from xAI, and Gemini from Google—that independently assess live Polymarket markets without any collaboration. This independence allows for genuine disagreement; when predictions diverge by 10 or more points from the crowd consensus, it's flagged as a high-conviction signal. This structure not only encourages diverse insights but also ensures that every prediction is timestamped and locked before the actual outcome, preserving the integrity of the data. The system promotes accountability by tracking accuracy with Brier scores and conducting post-mortems on incorrect calls. Ember represents a revolutionary approach to predictive analytics, providing users with reliable insights into market movements.